The effects of government propaganda in electoral authoritarian regimes: Evidence from Turkey
Tidligere forskning viser at statlig propaganda kan påvirke holdninger og opposisjonen i autokratier, men mekanismene er uklare. Gjennom to eksperimenter blant tyrkiske borgere viser Lutscher, Dræge, og Knutsen i denne artikkelen at propaganda styrker tilhørighet og mobilisering blant tilhengere, mens motstandere opplever mer sinne og mindre protestvilje. Deler av denne effekten svekkes imidlertid i perioder med høy politisk mobilisering, som under valgkampen i 2023.
Publisert i Forskningsaktuelt i dag kl. 14:29:13 | sist oppdatert i dag kl. 14:35:41
Forfatter
Jonas Bergan Dræge
Medforfatter
Philipp Lutscher og Carl Henrik Knutsen
Tidskrift
European Journal of Political Research
Abstract
Previous research conducted in closed autocracies indicates that government propaganda can deter opposition, shift political attitudes, and influence emotions. Yet the specific mechanisms and contextual factors influencing how and when propaganda works remain unclear. We theorize how power-projecting government propaganda works differently for government supporters and opponents in polarized electoral authoritarian regimes, focusing on emotional reactions, sense of societal belonging, and downstream effects on contentious political behavior. Through two preregistered surveys in Turkey (N = 6,286), we find that supporters exposed to propaganda videos feel a greater sense of belonging and are more susceptible to engage in pro-government activities. Opponents report heightened anger and anxiety and seem deterred from protesting. However, the latter effect weakened during the highly contested 2023 electoral campaign. These results indicate that propaganda can help electoral authoritarian regimes deter anti-government action and encourage pro-government action, but that its deterrent effects may weaken during periods of high mobilization and contention.